Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 22/10, 05:00
Prediction: Iva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolini
Team pages: Iva Jovic · Jasmine Paolini
Prediction summary
Winner
Iva Jovic
Jasmine Paolini
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Iva Jovic
6-4 (W-L)
Jasmine Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iva Jovic
1–2
Jasmine Paolini
(3 last)
- 23 Jan2-0 13-8W
- 28 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 08 Mar1-2 15-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iva Jovic 1576 · Jasmine Paolini 1521
| Iva Jovic | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iva Jovic (rating 1576 vs 1521).
- Head-to-head: Iva Jovic 1–2 Jasmine Paolini (3).
Statistics
| Iva Jovic | Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-8.3 | 10.4-10.2 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 57.1% |
| Break % | 53.8% | 56.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
H2H · Iva Jovic 1 – 2 Jasmine Paolini (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iva Jovic 1–2 Jasmine Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/08/25 US Open Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/03/25 WTA Indian Wells | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iva Jovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Dayana Yastremska WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/10 | Harriet Dart WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 20/09 | Peyton Stearns WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Magdalena Frech WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Coco Gauff US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Sonay Kartal WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Qinwen Zheng Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Veronika Erjavec US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iva Jovic vs Jasmine Paolini?
Our model gives 61% to Iva Jovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.