Tennis · W50 Austin · 19/10, 17:00
Prediction: Ella Mcdonald vs Mathilde Ngijol Carre
Team pages: Ella Mcdonald · Mathilde Ngijol Carre
Prediction summary
Winner
Ella Mcdonald
Mathilde Ngijol Carre
Estimated games
21.2
Recent form · 10 last
Ella Mcdonald
8-2 (W-L)
Mathilde Ngijol Carre
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ella Mcdonald 1625 · Mathilde Ngijol Carre 1477
| Ella Mcdonald | Mathilde Ngijol Carre | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ella Mcdonald (rating 1625 vs 1477).
- Ella Mcdonald is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Ella Mcdonald makes many double faults (5.6/match).
- Note: Mathilde Ngijol Carre makes many double faults (6.7/match).
Statistics
| Ella Mcdonald | Mathilde Ngijol Carre | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-7.7 | 9.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 53.6% |
| Break % | 46% | 49.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ella Mcdonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Kate Fakih W50 Austin |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/10 | Kristina Penickova W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Whitney Osuigwe W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Savannah Broadus W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Arina Bulatova W100 Templeton |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 29/09 | Katherine Hui W100 Templeton |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/09 | Kayla Day W50 Berkeley |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Madison Brengle W50 Berkeley |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Savannah Broadus W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Katherine Hui W50 Berkeley |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mathilde Ngijol Carre
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Salma Drugdova W35 Redding |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Stefani Webb W15 Nashville |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Charlotte Narti W15 Nashville |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/07 | Ariana Geerlings W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Ekaterina Agureeva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Andrea Obradovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Gloria De Santis W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/07 | Kristina Kovgan W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Seda Baslilar W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ella Mcdonald vs Mathilde Ngijol Carre?
Our model gives 80% to Ella Mcdonald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.