Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 19/10, 10:00
Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Team pages: Daria Kasatkina · Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daria Kasatkina
5–4
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
(9 last)
- 21 Sept0-2 5-13L
- 24 Mar0-2 10-13L
- 18 Mar2-1 18-16W
- 22 Feb2-1 17-9W
- 08 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 30 Aug0-2 8-13L
- 19 Oct2-0 12-7W
- 15 Aug2-0 12-6W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1447 · Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1548
| Daria Kasatkina | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aliaksandra Sasnovich (rating 1447 vs 1548).
- Aliaksandra Sasnovich is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina 5–4 Aliaksandra Sasnovich (9).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-14 | 10.5-6.8 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 7.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 54.4% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Daria Kasatkina 5 – 4 Aliaksandra Sasnovich (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Kasatkina 5–4 Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/26 WTA Singapore | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 24/03/22 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/03/21 WTA St. Petersburg | 2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 22/02/20 WTA Doha | 2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 08/01/19 WTA Sydney | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/08/18 US Open Women | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/10/17 WTA Moscow | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08/17 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/10 | Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 21/09 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Anna Bondar WTA Ningbo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/10 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Suzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Suzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Xinxin Yao WTA Suzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/09 | Varvara Lepchenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09 | Junhan Zhang WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich?
Our model gives 59% to Aliaksandra Sasnovich, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.