Tennis · WTA Ningbo · 19/10, 05:00
Prediction: Elise Mertens vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Team pages: Elise Mertens · Leylah Annie Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Elise Mertens
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Elise Mertens
6-4 (W-L)
Leylah Annie Fernandez
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elise Mertens
2–1
Leylah Annie Fernandez
(3 last)
- 16 Feb2-0 12-4W
- 19 Sept0-2 7-12L
- 09 Feb2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elise Mertens 1525 · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1570
| Elise Mertens | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leylah Annie Fernandez (rating 1525 vs 1570).
- Head-to-head: Elise Mertens 2–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (3).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Elise Mertens | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.7 | 12.5-9.8 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 66.1% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 54.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Elise Mertens 2 – 1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elise Mertens 2–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/25 WTA Dubai | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09/23 WTA Guadalajara | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/02/21 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Wuhan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Iga Swiatek WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/10 | Coco Gauff WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Katie Volynets WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 25/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Naomi Osaka US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Wuhan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Han Shi WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alycia Parks WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elise Mertens vs Leylah Annie Fernandez?
Our model gives 51% to Leylah Annie Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.