Tennis · WTA Lisbon · 14/10, 12:00
Prediction: Polona Hercog vs Jazmin Ortenzi
Team pages: Polona Hercog · Jazmin Ortenzi
Prediction summary
Winner
Polona Hercog
Jazmin Ortenzi
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Polona Hercog
5-5 (W-L)
Jazmin Ortenzi
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Polona Hercog
1–1
Jazmin Ortenzi
(2 last)
- 24 Nov1-2 11-15L
- 18 Nov2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Polona Hercog 1490 · Jazmin Ortenzi 1494
| Polona Hercog | Jazmin Ortenzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Polona Hercog | Jazmin Ortenzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-12 | 9.4-11.2 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 54.9% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Polona Hercog 1 – 1 Jazmin Ortenzi (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Polona Hercog 1–1 Jazmin Ortenzi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/25 WTA Buenos Aires | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 18/11/25 WTA Colina | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Polona Hercog
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Madalena Matias WTA Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 06/10 | Alena Kovackova W50 Burgas |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Lisa Pigato W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Naiktha Bains W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Ayana Akli W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Tolentino · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 14/09 | Julie Struplova WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Moyuka Uchijima US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Laura Pigossi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Dalila Jakupovic WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Jazmin Ortenzi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Barbora Palicova WTA Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/10 | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo W50 Burgas |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Ilinca D Amariei W50 Burgas |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 07/10 | Laura Mair W50 Burgas |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/09 | Paula Badosa WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 16/09 | Chloe Paquet WTA Sao Paulo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Mary Stoiana WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Himeno Sakatsume US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Katherine Sebov Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/06 | Elizara Yaneva WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Polona Hercog vs Jazmin Ortenzi?
Our model gives 51% to Jazmin Ortenzi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.