Tennis · Challenger Catania · 14/10, 10:00
Prediction: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Luca Potenza
Team pages: Radu Mihai Papoe · Luca Potenza
Prediction summary
Winner
Radu Mihai Papoe
Luca Potenza
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Radu Mihai Papoe
6-4 (W-L)
Luca Potenza
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Radu Mihai Papoe 1557 · Luca Potenza 1479
| Radu Mihai Papoe | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Radu Mihai Papoe (rating 1557 vs 1479).
Statistics
| Radu Mihai Papoe | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.6 | 13.3-13.2 |
| Aces | 1 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 60% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 46.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Radu Mihai Papoe
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Borys Zgola M25 Slobozia |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Vladislav Melnic M25 Slobozia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/09 | Stefan Adrian Andreescu M25 Slobozia |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 20/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Javier Barranco Cosano Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 17/08 | Matyas Cerny Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Jakub Vrtilka Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 08/08 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Luca Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 13/09 | Finn Bass Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 05/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Radu Mihai Papoe vs Luca Potenza?
Our model gives 69% to Radu Mihai Papoe, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.