Tennis · Challenger Catania · 13/10, 10:00
Prediction: Michael Geerts vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Michael Geerts · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Geerts
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Geerts
5-5 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Geerts 1501 · Pavel Lagutin 1559
| Michael Geerts | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1501 vs 1559).
- Note: Michael Geerts makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Michael Geerts | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.5 | 12.4-9.2 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 45.1% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Geerts
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Joao Domingues Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 27/09 | Vladyslav Orlov Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 19/08 | Radu Albot Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Billy Blaydes Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/08 | Lars Goran Verwerft M25 Koksijde |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Geoffrey Blancaneaux M25 Koksijde |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Ignacio Parisca Romera Challenger Catania · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/09 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/09 | Maximilian Marterer Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/09 | Matthieu Roehrich Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Geerts vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 67% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.