Tennis · WTA Lisbon · 13/10, 12:00
Prediction: Madalena Matias vs Polona Hercog
Team pages: Madalena Matias · Polona Hercog
Prediction summary
Winner
Madalena Matias
Polona Hercog
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Madalena Matias
2-8 (W-L)
Polona Hercog
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madalena Matias 1416 · Polona Hercog 1467
| Madalena Matias | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 7% | 93% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polona Hercog (rating 1416 vs 1467).
- Note: Madalena Matias makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Madalena Matias | Polona Hercog | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.3-1.8 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 4.6-11.8 | 10.3-13.2 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 44.3% | 62.7% |
| Break % | 26.2% | 39.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madalena Matias
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Veronika Podrez WTA Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 06/09 | Celia Cervino Ruiz W50 Evora |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Zoziya Kardava W50 Corroios-Seixal |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Han Shi W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Teresa Franco Dias W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Charlotte Keitel W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/04 | Rebecca Sramkova Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Fiona Crawley WTA Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 01/02 | Milana Zhabrailova W50 Porto |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/01 | Laura Mair W75 Porto |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Polona Hercog
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Alena Kovackova W50 Burgas |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Lisa Pigato W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Naiktha Bains W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/09 | Ayana Akli W75 Quinta Do Lago · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 21/09 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Tolentino · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 14/09 | Julie Struplova WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Moyuka Uchijima US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Laura Pigossi W100 Gran Canaria |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Dalila Jakupovic WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/06 | Bianca Andreescu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madalena Matias vs Polona Hercog?
Our model gives 77% to Polona Hercog, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.