Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 09/10, 11:30
Prediction: Stefano D'Agostino vs Andrey Chepelev
Team pages: Stefano D'Agostino · Andrey Chepelev
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano D'Agostino
Andrey Chepelev
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano D'Agostino
6-4 (W-L)
Andrey Chepelev
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano D'Agostino 1528 · Andrey Chepelev 1574
| Stefano D'Agostino | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1528 vs 1574).
- Note: Stefano D'Agostino makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Stefano D'Agostino | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-9.7 | 10.5-9.2 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 1 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 37.1% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano D'Agostino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 9-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Niccolo Ciavarella Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexandre Aubriot M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Richard Lacis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Andrey Chepelev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 07/10 | Michiel de Krom M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Max Hans Rehberg M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/09 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 16/09 | Alessandro Battiston M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/09 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Gianmarco Ferrari Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Jeremy Gschwendtner Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano D'Agostino vs Andrey Chepelev?
Our model gives 58% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.