Tennis · Challenger Antofagasta · 06/10, 15:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Thiago Cigarran
Team pages: Miguel Tobon · Thiago Cigarran
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Thiago Cigarran
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
5-5 (W-L)
Thiago Cigarran
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1483 · Thiago Cigarran 1558
| Miguel Tobon | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Cigarran (rating 1483 vs 1558).
- Thiago Cigarran is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Thiago Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.8 | 13-9.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 55.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 10/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Koray Kirci Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
Thiago Cigarran
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Anders Matta Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Santiago Pesino Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 04/09 | Karim Bennani M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Idriss Haddouch M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Frazier Rengifo M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/08 | Jannik Maute M15 Allershausen |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 28/08 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M15 Allershausen |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/08 | Frederic Schlossmann M15 Allershausen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M15 Allershausen |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Thiago Cigarran?
Our model gives 58% to Miguel Tobon, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.