Tennis · Challenger Antofagasta · 05/10, 15:00
Prediction: Hernan Casanova vs Bernardo Munk Mesa
Team pages: Hernan Casanova · Bernardo Munk Mesa
Prediction summary
Winner
Hernan Casanova
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Hernan Casanova
4-6 (W-L)
Bernardo Munk Mesa
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hernan Casanova 1461 · Bernardo Munk Mesa 1503
| Hernan Casanova | Bernardo Munk Mesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernardo Munk Mesa (rating 1461 vs 1503).
- Note: Bernardo Munk Mesa makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Hernan Casanova | Bernardo Munk Mesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-9.7 | 11.8-11.4 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 0.4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 57% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 58.3% | 53.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hernan Casanova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Wilson Leite Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Flynn Thomas M25 Muttenz |
0-2 | 4-8 | L |
| 04/08 | Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M25 Denia |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 23/07 | Ludvig Fredrik Hede M25 Denia |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Jordi Garcia Mestre M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Bernardo Munk Mesa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Mario Arce Fernandez M25 Gijon |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Madrid |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 03/09 | Juan Ignacio Gallego M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Carles Cordoba M15 Madrid |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Pedro Vives Marcos M25 Oviedo |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Michiel de Krom M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Sergi Perez Contri M25 Santander |
1-1 | 8-9 | L |
| 18/08 | Yanaki Milev M25 Santander |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hernan Casanova vs Bernardo Munk Mesa?
Our model gives 60% to Hernan Casanova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.