Tennis · WTA Samsun · 05/10, 10:00
Prediction: Mariia Tkacheva vs Mariam Bolkvadze
Team pages: Mariam Bolkvadze
Prediction summary
Winner
Mariia Tkacheva
Mariam Bolkvadze
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Mariia Tkacheva
4-6 (W-L)
Mariam Bolkvadze
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mariia Tkacheva
1–1
Mariam Bolkvadze
(2 last)
- 14 Dec0-2 4-12L
- 16 Jul2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mariia Tkacheva 1457 · Mariam Bolkvadze 1512
| Mariia Tkacheva | Mariam Bolkvadze | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mariam Bolkvadze (rating 1457 vs 1512).
- Note: Mariam Bolkvadze makes many double faults (8.7/match).
Statistics
| Mariia Tkacheva | Mariam Bolkvadze | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-11 | 10.7-11.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 8.7 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 56.4% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Mariia Tkacheva 1 – 1 Mariam Bolkvadze (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mariia Tkacheva 1–1 Mariam Bolkvadze
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/23 ITF W25 Sharm El Sheikh | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/07/22 ITF W25 Nur-Sultan | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mariia Tkacheva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Anastasia Tikhonova WTA Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/08 | Dune Vaissaud W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 21/02 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Austin · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 15/02 | Shilin Xu WTA Midland · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/01 | Donna Vekic WTA Manila · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 27/01 | Sara Saito WTA Manila · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/12 | Sohyun Park ITF W35 New Delhi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 06/12 | Katherine Sebov W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 27/11 | Tamila Gadamauri W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Mariam Bolkvadze
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Alya Naz Altinel WTA Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/08 | Anouk Koevermans US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Alevtina Ibragimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Erika Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Kallista Liu W100 Landisville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Kaitlyn Carnicella W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Jeline Vandromme Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mariia Tkacheva vs Mariam Bolkvadze?
Our model gives 57% to Mariam Bolkvadze, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.