Tennis · Challenger Antofagasta · 06/10, 15:00
Prediction: Alex Barrena vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Team pages: Alex Barrena · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Barrena
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Barrena
8-2 (W-L)
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Barrena
1–2
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
(3 last)
- 28 Jan2-1 14-16W
- 08 Oct0-2 6-12L
- 27 Sept0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Barrena 1628 · Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 1503
| Alex Barrena | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Barrena (rating 1628 vs 1503).
- Alex Barrena is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Barrena 1–2 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (3).
Statistics
| Alex Barrena | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-7.9 | 12.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 2 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Alex Barrena 1 – 2 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Barrena 1–2 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Challenger Concepcion | 2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 08/10/24 Challenger Villa Maria | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/09/23 Challenger Bogota | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Barrena
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Valentin Garay Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 12/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 30/09 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 29/09 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Remy Bertola Davis Cup |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Jay Friend Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Marek Gengel Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Christian Langmo Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Barrena vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida?
Our model gives 56% to Alex Barrena, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.