Tennis · Challenger Antofagasta · 06/10, 15:00
Prediction: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
3-7 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
1–5
Juan Pablo Varillas
(6 last)
- 27 Jan0-2 7-13L
- 23 Feb2-0 12-6W
- 08 Nov1-2 17-19L
- 08 Mar0-2 5-12L
- 16 Nov0-2 9-13L
- 13 Jun0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1489 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1564
| Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1489 vs 1564).
- Head-to-head: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1–5 Juan Pablo Varillas (6).
Statistics
| Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.3 | 13.5-12.1 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 44.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1 – 5 Juan Pablo Varillas (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves 1–5 Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 Challenger Concepcion | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/02/25 ATP Santiago | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/11/23 Challenger Lima | 1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/03/21 ATP Santiago | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/11/20 Challenger Guayaquil | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06/17 ITF Argentina F2 | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Moise Kouame Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Dali Blanch Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos M25 Londrina |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Maximo Zeitune M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 22/09 | Tomas Farjat Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/09 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 11/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 06/09 | Matej Dodig Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 53% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.