Tennis · Challenger Antofagasta · 04/10, 18:00
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Bautista De La Pena
Team pages: Mateus Alves · Bautista De La Pena
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Bautista De La Pena
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
9-1 (W-L)
Bautista De La Pena
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1610 · Bautista De La Pena 1436
| Mateus Alves | Bautista De La Pena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 96% | 4% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateus Alves (rating 1610 vs 1436).
- Mateus Alves is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Bautista De La Pena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (2) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-6.9 | 7.8-12 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 83.6% | 59.1% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 27.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Jose Pereira Challenger Curitiba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 26/09 | Wilson Leite M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/09 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/09 | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/09 | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo M15 Curitiba |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Pedro Sakamoto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/09 | Rafael Tosetto M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09 | Ryan Augusto Dos Santos M15 Leme |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Victor Braga M15 Leme |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Bautista De La Pena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Noah Schachter M15 Trelew |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Nathan Cox M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 17/08 | Fantino Alberca De Las Casas M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 10/08 | Jackson Pereira Xavier M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Bastian Malla M15 Sao Paulo |
0-1 | 3-8 | L |
| 21/07 | Santiago Pesino M25 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Joao Ogando Monteiro Machado M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/07 | Luis Jose Nakamine M15 Villa Constitucion |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Arklon Huertas del Pino Cordova Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Luis Felipe Miguel M15 Brasilia |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Bautista De La Pena?
Our model gives 86% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.