Tennis · Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · 02/10, 10:00
Prediction: Lucas Poullain vs Joel Schwaerzler
Team pages: Lucas Poullain · Joel Schwaerzler
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucas Poullain
Joel Schwaerzler
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Lucas Poullain
4-6 (W-L)
Joel Schwaerzler
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Poullain 1532 · Joel Schwaerzler 1514
| Lucas Poullain | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Lucas Poullain | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-11.3 | 12.3-12.4 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 71% |
| Break % | 35.4% | 38.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Poullain
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Mark Lajal Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/09 | Diogo Morais M25 Setubal |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Lui Maxted Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Michael Geerts Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Joel Schwaerzler
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/09 | Maxime Chazal Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Max Basing Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 26/08 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 24/08 | Gustavo Heide US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 19/08 | Kenta Miyoshi Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/08 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Poullain vs Joel Schwaerzler?
Our model gives 57% to Joel Schwaerzler, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.