Tennis · Challenger Columbus · 01/10, 16:00
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs Colton Smith
Team pages: Aidan Mayo · Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
Colton Smith
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
9-1 (W-L)
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aidan Mayo
2–0
Colton Smith
(2 last)
- 09 Aug2-0 13-9W
- 20 Feb2-1 14-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1543 · Colton Smith 1486
| Aidan Mayo | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1543 vs 1486).
- Aidan Mayo is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Aidan Mayo 2–0 Colton Smith (2).
- Note: Aidan Mayo makes many double faults (4.3/match).
- Note: Colton Smith makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.2 | 12.4-13.1 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 34.7% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Aidan Mayo 2 – 0 Colton Smith (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aidan Mayo 2–0 Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/24 Challenger Lincoln | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/02/21 UTR Pro Tennis Series California | 2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Nikita Filin Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/09 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/09 | Jordan Lee Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/09 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Andy Andrade Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/08 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Andres Martin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/08 | Benjamin Willwerth Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/08 | Keshav Chopra Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Colton Smith
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09 | Duncan Chan Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/09 | Timo Legout Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jerome Kym US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Andrea Pellegrino US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 57% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.