Tennis · Challenger Columbus · 01/10, 16:00
Prediction: Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan Smith
Team pages: Bryce Nakashima · Keegan Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Bryce Nakashima
Keegan Smith
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Bryce Nakashima
8-2 (W-L)
Keegan Smith
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bryce Nakashima 1589 · Keegan Smith 1494
| Bryce Nakashima | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bryce Nakashima (rating 1589 vs 1494).
- Bryce Nakashima dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 49.2% break avg.
- Bryce Nakashima is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Bryce Nakashima | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.4 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-9.1 | 13.2-13.4 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 49.2% | 20.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bryce Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/09 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Timo Legout Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 14/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Jakub Vrba M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08 | Preston Stearns M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Jack Anthrop M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Tyler Bowers M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Edward Winter Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 24/08 | Alexis Galarneau US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 22/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan Smith?
Our model gives 56% to Bryce Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.