Tennis · Challenger Columbus · 29/09, 20:30
Prediction: Duncan Chan vs Colton Smith
Team pages: Duncan Chan · Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Duncan Chan
Colton Smith
Estimated games
24.1
Recent form · 10 last
Duncan Chan
3-7 (W-L)
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Duncan Chan 1523 · Colton Smith 1455
| Duncan Chan | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Duncan Chan (rating 1523 vs 1455).
- Duncan Chan is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Duncan Chan makes many double faults (5.2/match).
- Note: Colton Smith makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Duncan Chan | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.6 | 12.6-14.3 |
| Aces | 4 | 5 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 53.2% | 41.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Duncan Chan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Keaton Hance Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Denis Petak Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 01/08 | Hugo Gaston ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 21/07 | James McCabe Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Timo Legout Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Jerome Kym US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Andrea Pellegrino US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Duncan Chan vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 54% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.