Tennis · W35 Wagga Wagga · 30/09, 02:00
Prediction: Mio Mushika vs Caitlin Abela
Prediction summary
Winner
Mio Mushika
Caitlin Abela
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mio Mushika
2-8 (W-L)
Caitlin Abela
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mio Mushika 1396 · Caitlin Abela 1459
| Mio Mushika | Caitlin Abela | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caitlin Abela (rating 1396 vs 1459).
- Caitlin Abela is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Note: Mio Mushika makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Mio Mushika | Caitlin Abela | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.9 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.8-13.7 | 9.5-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.6 | – |
| Double faults | 4 | – |
| 1st serve % | 57.5% | – |
| Break % | 37.2% | – |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mio Mushika
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Hiromi Abe W35 Kyoto |
0-2 | 1-8 | L |
| 16/09 | Destanee Aiava W35 Kyoto |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/09 | Yuka Matsumoto W15 Yeongwol |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Ha Eum Lee W15 Yeongwol |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Naho Sato W35 Aldershot |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Paula Cembranos W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Hikaru Sato W35 Aldershot |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Emma Dong W35 Saskatoon |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 15/07 | Cadence Brace W75 Granby |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Yuki Naito W35 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Caitlin Abela
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Angela Cui UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Lily Fannin UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Eva Lopez UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 16/09 | Nikitha Desai UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Shante Lai UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Sara Mickoska UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Christina Dodaj UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Destanee Aiava UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Soha Singh UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Ariel Gunawan UTR Pro Sydney Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mio Mushika vs Caitlin Abela?
Our model gives 68% to Mio Mushika, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.