Tennis · Challenger Columbus · 28/09, 17:30
Prediction: James Trotter vs Li Tu
Team pages: James Trotter · Li Tu
Prediction summary
Winner
James Trotter
Li Tu
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
James Trotter
8-2 (W-L)
Li Tu
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
James Trotter
0–1
Li Tu
(1 last)
- 01 Aug0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James Trotter 1587 · Li Tu 1462
| James Trotter | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours James Trotter (rating 1587 vs 1462).
- James Trotter dominates on serve: 7 aces and 49.3% break avg.
- James Trotter is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: James Trotter 0–1 Li Tu (1).
Statistics
| James Trotter | Li Tu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-8.5 | 10.2-11.9 |
| Aces | 7 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.4% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 28.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · James Trotter 0 – 1 Li Tu (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · James Trotter 0–1 Li Tu
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/24 Challenger Lexington | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James Trotter
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Alexander Okonkwo Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Federico Cina Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/09 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Liu Ziyu Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 02/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Jie Cui Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Li Tu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Nicolas Oliveira Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Quinn Vandecasteele ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 18/04 | Charles Broom Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 17/04 | Blake Ellis Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James Trotter vs Li Tu?
Our model gives 60% to James Trotter, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.