Tennis · Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · 27/09, 10:00
Prediction: Patrick Zahraj vs Karl Poling
Team pages: Patrick Zahraj · Karl Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Patrick Zahraj
Karl Poling
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Patrick Zahraj
4-6 (W-L)
Karl Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Patrick Zahraj
2–0
Karl Poling
(2 last)
- 22 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 11 Nov2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patrick Zahraj 1507 · Karl Poling 1458
| Patrick Zahraj | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patrick Zahraj (rating 1507 vs 1458).
- Head-to-head: Patrick Zahraj 2–0 Karl Poling (2).
Statistics
| Patrick Zahraj | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10.7 | 14-13.8 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 33.3% | 36.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Patrick Zahraj 2 – 0 Karl Poling (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Patrick Zahraj 2–0 Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Challenger Morelia | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/11/24 Challenger Drummondville | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patrick Zahraj
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 14/09 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Joshua Sheehy Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Plaisir |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Mickael Kaouk M25 Plaisir |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Sven Corbinais M25 Plaisir |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Matisse Martin M25 Plaisir |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Patrick Brady Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Mika Brunold Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Karl Poling
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 21/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 16/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Thomas Fancutt M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patrick Zahraj vs Karl Poling?
Our model gives 58% to Patrick Zahraj, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.