Tennis · Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · 27/09, 10:00
Prediction: Justin Boulais vs Alexandre Reco
Team pages: Justin Boulais · Alexandre Reco
Prediction summary
Winner
Justin Boulais
Alexandre Reco
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Justin Boulais
3-7 (W-L)
Alexandre Reco
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Justin Boulais 1451 · Alexandre Reco 1524
| Justin Boulais | Alexandre Reco | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexandre Reco (rating 1451 vs 1524).
- Alexandre Reco is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Justin Boulais makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Justin Boulais | Alexandre Reco | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 1.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.8 | 10.3-8.8 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 34.6% | 53.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Justin Boulais
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/09 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/09 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 14/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/09 | Theo Arribage Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 06/09 | Matis Roche Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/08 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Adam Walton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Connor Church Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Alexandre Reco
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Aidan Mchugh M25 Nevers |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Etienne Donnet M25 Nevers |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/09 | Damien Clerc M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/09 | Melvin Kumar M25 Nevers |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Plaisir |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Raphael Perot M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Mae Malige M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Rahul Dhokia M25 Aldershot |
1-0 | 6-2 | W |
| 25/07 | Julio Cesar Porras M15 Rognac |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Justin Boulais vs Alexandre Reco?
Our model gives 53% to Justin Boulais, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.