Tennis · Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · 27/09, 13:00
Prediction: Jelle Sels vs Ryan Peniston
Team pages: Jelle Sels · Ryan Peniston
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelle Sels
Ryan Peniston
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jelle Sels
6-4 (W-L)
Ryan Peniston
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelle Sels 1490 · Ryan Peniston 1414
| Jelle Sels | Ryan Peniston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jelle Sels (rating 1490 vs 1414).
- Jelle Sels is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Ryan Peniston makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Jelle Sels | Ryan Peniston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-13.2 | 8.9-11.8 |
| Aces | 4 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 32% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelle Sels
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/08 | David Poljak Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 27/08 | Pieter De Lange M25 Oldenzaal |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 25/08 | Stijn Paardekooper M25 Oldenzaal |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Abel Forger M25 The Hague |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Deney Wassermann M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Yuichiro Inui M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Ryan Peniston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Daniel Jade Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 07/09 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 20/02 | Max Basing M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
| 19/02 | Francisco Rocha M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/02 | Rodrigo Alujas M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/02 | Hynek Barton Challenger Tenerife · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/01 | Coleman Wong Challenger Manama · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/01 | Hyeon Chung Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelle Sels vs Ryan Peniston?
Our model gives 55% to Ryan Peniston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.