Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 25/09, 13:00
Prediction: Harold Mayot vs Jesper De Jong
Team pages: Harold Mayot · Jesper De Jong
Prediction summary
Winner
Harold Mayot
Jesper De Jong
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Harold Mayot
8-2 (W-L)
Jesper De Jong
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Harold Mayot
1–2
Jesper De Jong
(3 last)
- 21 Aug1-2 16-19L
- 05 May0-2 6-12L
- 04 Jan2-1 16-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Harold Mayot 1572 · Jesper De Jong 1524
| Harold Mayot | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harold Mayot (rating 1572 vs 1524).
- Jesper De Jong dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Harold Mayot 1–2 Jesper De Jong (3).
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (6.5/match).
Statistics
| Harold Mayot | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.6 | 13.2-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 6.5 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 40.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Harold Mayot 1 – 2 Jesper De Jong (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Harold Mayot 1–2 Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/25 US Open | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 05/05/25 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/01/24 Challenger Noumea | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Harold Mayot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Justin Boulais Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 20/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/09 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/09 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Clement Tabur Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/09 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 22/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Samuel Heredia Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Zizou Bergs US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-21 | L |
| 02/09 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 24-19 | W |
| 24/08 | Adam Walton ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Harold Mayot vs Jesper De Jong?
Our model gives 52% to Harold Mayot, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.