Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 24/09, 10:00
Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper De Jong
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · Jesper De Jong
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
Jesper De Jong
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
4-6 (W-L)
Jesper De Jong
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1560 · Jesper De Jong 1502
| Andrea Guerrieri | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Guerrieri (rating 1560 vs 1502).
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Jesper De Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.2 | 12.8-11.7 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | August Holmgren US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 07/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Jesper De Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/09 | Samuel Heredia Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Zizou Bergs US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-21 | L |
| 02/09 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 24-19 | W |
| 24/08 | Adam Walton ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper De Jong?
Our model gives 59% to Jesper De Jong, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.