Tennis · M25 Yinchuan · 24/09, 04:00
Prediction: Alibek Kachmazov vs Chase Ferguson
Team pages: Alibek Kachmazov · Chase Ferguson
Prediction summary
Winner
Alibek Kachmazov
Chase Ferguson
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alibek Kachmazov
6-4 (W-L)
Chase Ferguson
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alibek Kachmazov 1600 · Chase Ferguson 1545
| Alibek Kachmazov | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alibek Kachmazov (rating 1600 vs 1545).
- Alibek Kachmazov dominates on serve: 10.4 aces and 50.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Alibek Kachmazov | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-9.8 | 12.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 10.4 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 80.2% | 68% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alibek Kachmazov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Xirui Han M25 Yinchuan |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Yunseong Chung M25 Guiyang |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/09 | Nikolai Barsukov M25 Guiyang |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/09 | Robin Catry M25 Guiyang |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Qian Sun M25 Guiyang |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/09 | Shaoyun Liu M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Louis Wessels Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Astana · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 06/08 | Sora Fukuda M15 Astana |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Yinchuan |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 19/09 | Yunseong Chung M25 Guiyang |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Sheng Tang M25 Guiyang |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/09 | Zhenxiong Dong M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 16/09 | Minghui Zhang M25 Guiyang |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Sanhui Shin M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Riku Takahata M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alibek Kachmazov vs Chase Ferguson?
Our model gives 69% to Alibek Kachmazov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.