Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 22/09, 14:30
Prediction: Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkate
Team pages: Matteo Martineau · Tristan Schoolkate
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Martineau
Tristan Schoolkate
Estimated games
24.1
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Martineau
5-5 (W-L)
Tristan Schoolkate
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Martineau 1502 · Tristan Schoolkate 1557
| Matteo Martineau | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Schoolkate (rating 1502 vs 1557).
- Matteo Martineau dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 41.1% break avg.
- Tristan Schoolkate is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Matteo Martineau makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Martineau | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.5 | 14.6-12.3 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 10.2 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Martineau
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Justin Boulais Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/09 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/09 | Borna Gojo Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/09 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Emile Hudd Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 24/08 | Billy Blaydes Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Lui Maxted Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Max Dahlin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Tristan Schoolkate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Marek Gengel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Flavio Cobolli US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 01/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Liam Draxl US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 27/08 | Seong Chan Hong US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Jack Secord US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 62% to Tristan Schoolkate, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.