Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 22/09, 10:00
Prediction: David Goffin vs Mark Lajal
Team pages: Mark Lajal
Prediction summary
Winner
David Goffin
Mark Lajal
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
David Goffin
4-6 (W-L)
Mark Lajal
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
David Goffin
1–0
Mark Lajal
(1 last)
- 04 Nov2-1 18-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · David Goffin 1422 · Mark Lajal 1581
| David Goffin | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mark Lajal (rating 1422 vs 1581).
- David Goffin dominates on serve: 9.5 aces and 46.8% break avg.
- Mark Lajal is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: David Goffin 1–0 Mark Lajal (1).
Statistics
| David Goffin | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (3) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-13.2 | 13.1-8.9 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 77.5% |
| Break % | 46.8% | 48.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · David Goffin 1 – 0 Mark Lajal (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · David Goffin 1–0 Mark Lajal
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/23 Challenger Bergamo | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
David Goffin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Toby Samuel French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 18/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/04 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Aix en Provence · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 04/04 | Ignacio Buse ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/03 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Challenger Cap Cana · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Chun Hsin Tseng ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Lille · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Mark Lajal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Daniel Masur Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/09 | Lenny Couturier Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/09 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/09 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/09 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in David Goffin vs Mark Lajal?
Our model gives 74% to Mark Lajal, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.