Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 22/09, 10:00
Prediction: Andrea Guerrieri vs Francesco Maestrelli
Team pages: Andrea Guerrieri · Francesco Maestrelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrea Guerrieri
Francesco Maestrelli
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Andrea Guerrieri
4-6 (W-L)
Francesco Maestrelli
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrea Guerrieri 1548 · Francesco Maestrelli 1496
| Andrea Guerrieri | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrea Guerrieri (rating 1548 vs 1496).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 52.2% break avg.
- Andrea Guerrieri is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Andrea Guerrieri makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Andrea Guerrieri | Francesco Maestrelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-12.1 | 11.6-12.8 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrea Guerrieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Alex De Minaur US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 27/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/08 | Joel Schwaerzler US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | August Holmgren US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 07/08 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/09 | Yanis Ghazouani Durand Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrea Guerrieri vs Francesco Maestrelli?
Our model gives 57% to Andrea Guerrieri, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.