Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 22/09, 10:00
Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov vs Edas Butvilas
Team pages: Grigor Dimitrov · Edas Butvilas
Prediction summary
Winner
Grigor Dimitrov
Edas Butvilas
Estimated games
25.8
Recent form · 10 last
Grigor Dimitrov
7-3 (W-L)
Edas Butvilas
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grigor Dimitrov 1501 · Edas Butvilas 1541
| Grigor Dimitrov | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Edas Butvilas (rating 1501 vs 1541).
- Grigor Dimitrov dominates on serve: 9.6 aces and 47.9% break avg.
- Edas Butvilas dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Grigor Dimitrov | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.6 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-15.5 | 14-11.9 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Holger Rune Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Elmer Moller Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 26/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Lorenzo Giustino US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
Edas Butvilas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Miomir Kecmanovic Davis Cup |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 11/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Remy Bertola Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grigor Dimitrov vs Edas Butvilas?
Our model gives 60% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.