Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 20/09, 13:00
Prediction: Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Karl Poling
Team pages: Yanis Ghazouani Durand · Karl Poling
Prediction summary
Winner
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Karl Poling
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
6-4 (W-L)
Karl Poling
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanis Ghazouani Durand 1543 · Karl Poling 1461
| Yanis Ghazouani Durand | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanis Ghazouani Durand (rating 1543 vs 1461).
- Note: Yanis Ghazouani Durand makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Yanis Ghazouani Durand | Karl Poling | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 0% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-11 | 13.3-13.9 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 65% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 32.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 13/09 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 10/09 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/09 | Gray Voelzke Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Szymon Kielan Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 25/07 | Nicolas Parizzia M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 25/08 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 16/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Thomas Fancutt M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/08 | Jesse Flores M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanis Ghazouani Durand vs Karl Poling?
Our model gives 63% to Yanis Ghazouani Durand, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.