Tennis · Challenger Saint-Tropez · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Moez Echargui vs Luca Potenza
Team pages: Moez Echargui · Luca Potenza
Prediction summary
Winner
Moez Echargui
Luca Potenza
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Moez Echargui
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Potenza
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Moez Echargui
2–0
Luca Potenza
(2 last)
- 11 Jun2-0 12-7W
- 24 Jan2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moez Echargui 1479 · Luca Potenza 1534
| Moez Echargui | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Potenza (rating 1479 vs 1534).
- Head-to-head: Moez Echargui 2–0 Luca Potenza (2).
Statistics
| Moez Echargui | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-13.7 | 14.2-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 31.2% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
H2H · Moez Echargui 2 – 0 Luca Potenza (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moez Echargui 2–0 Luca Potenza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/25 M25 Monastir | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/01/25 M15 Monastir | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moez Echargui
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Cassis · Hard |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 10/09 | Billy Harris Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 07/09 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Jack Pinnington Jones Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Dellien US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Moise Kouame Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Luca Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Finn Bass Challenger Rennes · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 05/09 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Manacor · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 01/09 | Carl Emil Overbeck Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Daniel Masur Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Samuel Heredia M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moez Echargui vs Luca Potenza?
Our model gives 57% to Moez Echargui, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.