Prediction: Alex De Minaur vs Kamil Majchrzak
Team pages: Alex De Minaur · Kamil Majchrzak
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex De Minaur
Kamil Majchrzak
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Alex De Minaur
6-4 (W-L)
Kamil Majchrzak
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex De Minaur
2–1
Kamil Majchrzak
(3 last)
- 14 Jun1-2 15-15L
- 06 Oct2-0 13-6W
- 20 Jan3-0 18-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex De Minaur 1531 · Kamil Majchrzak 1456
| Alex De Minaur | Kamil Majchrzak | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1531 vs 1456).
- Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur 2–1 Kamil Majchrzak (3).
Statistics
| Alex De Minaur | Kamil Majchrzak | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.2 | 14.1-14.4 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 9.5 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 31.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
H2H · Alex De Minaur 2 – 1 Kamil Majchrzak (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex De Minaur 2–1 Kamil Majchrzak
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 ATP Hertogenbosch | 1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 06/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/01/22 Australian Open | 3-0 | 18-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Kamil Majchrzak
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | James Duckworth Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-23 | L |
| 30/08 | Hamad Medjedovic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Tommy Paul ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-26 | L |
| 30/06 | Alejandro Tabilo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex De Minaur vs Kamil Majchrzak?
Our model gives 69% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.