Prediction: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Arthur Rinderknech
Team pages: Felix Auger Aliassime · Arthur Rinderknech
Prediction summary
Winner
Felix Auger Aliassime
Arthur Rinderknech
Estimated games
28.4
Recent form · 10 last
Felix Auger Aliassime
7-3 (W-L)
Arthur Rinderknech
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Felix Auger Aliassime
1–1
Arthur Rinderknech
(2 last)
- 10 Oct0-2 7-12L
- 24 Jun2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Felix Auger Aliassime 1525 · Arthur Rinderknech 1498
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 14.8 aces and 52.2% break avg.
- Arthur Rinderknech dominates on serve: 15 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Felix Auger Aliassime is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Felix Auger Aliassime makes many double faults (5.3/match).
- Note: Arthur Rinderknech makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-1.2 | 1.4-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.6-16 | 16.6-16.1 |
| Aces | 14.8 | 15 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.4
H2H · Felix Auger Aliassime 1 – 1 Arthur Rinderknech (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felix Auger Aliassime 1–1 Arthur Rinderknech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06/25 ATP Mallorca | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Quentin Halys Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 03/09 | Karen Khachanov US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 01/09 | Rinky Hijikata US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
Arthur Rinderknech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Liam Draxl Davis Cup |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 02/09 | Jaume Munar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Sho Shimabukuro US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 16/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 05/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felix Auger Aliassime vs Arthur Rinderknech?
Our model gives 63% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.