Prediction: Holger Rune vs Grigor Dimitrov
Team pages: Holger Rune · Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Holger Rune
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Holger Rune
7-3 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Holger Rune
2–2
Grigor Dimitrov
(4 last)
- 11 Apr2-1 17-18W
- 07 Jan0-2 10-13L
- 01 Oct0-2 8-13L
- 10 Jul3-1 23-21W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Holger Rune 1566 · Grigor Dimitrov 1514
| Holger Rune | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holger Rune (rating 1566 vs 1514).
- Grigor Dimitrov dominates on serve: 9.5 aces and 43.7% break avg.
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Holger Rune | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-10.6 | 16.8-15.9 |
| Aces | 7 | 9.5 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 38.4% | 43.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5
H2H · Holger Rune 2 – 2 Grigor Dimitrov (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Holger Rune 2–2 Grigor Dimitrov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/24 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 07/01/24 ATP Brisbane | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/10/23 ATP Beijing | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07/23 Wimbledon | 3-1 | 23-21 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Holger Rune
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 07/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Ethan Quinn ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/09 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Grigor Dimitrov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Elmer Moller Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 26/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Lorenzo Giustino US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 02/07 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-20 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Holger Rune vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 53% to Grigor Dimitrov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.