Prediction: James Watt vs Sho Shimabukuro
Team pages: James Watt · Sho Shimabukuro
Prediction summary
Winner
James Watt
Sho Shimabukuro
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
James Watt
5-5 (W-L)
Sho Shimabukuro
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
James Watt
0–1
Sho Shimabukuro
(1 last)
- 26 Aug1-2 12-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James Watt 1476 · Sho Shimabukuro 1433
| James Watt | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours James Watt (rating 1476 vs 1433).
- Head-to-head: James Watt 0–1 Sho Shimabukuro (1).
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| James Watt | Sho Shimabukuro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 0.8-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-13 | 11.7-14.6 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 35.1% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · James Watt 0 – 1 Sho Shimabukuro (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · James Watt 0–1 Sho Shimabukuro
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/25 Challenger Zhangjiagang | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James Watt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 17/08 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 07/06 | Daniel Evans Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 01/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/05 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/05 | Andres Martin Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Sho Shimabukuro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 23/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/08 | Hugo Dellien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 17/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James Watt vs Sho Shimabukuro?
Our model gives 60% to Sho Shimabukuro, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.