Tennis · Challenger Tiburon · 18/09, 21:00
Prediction: Darwin Blanch vs Bryce Nakashima
Team pages: Darwin Blanch · Bryce Nakashima
Prediction summary
Winner
Darwin Blanch
Bryce Nakashima
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Darwin Blanch
2-8 (W-L)
Bryce Nakashima
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darwin Blanch 1435 · Bryce Nakashima 1602
| Darwin Blanch | Bryce Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 72% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bryce Nakashima (rating 1435 vs 1602).
- Bryce Nakashima dominates on serve: 7 aces and 55.2% break avg.
- Bryce Nakashima is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Darwin Blanch makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Darwin Blanch | Bryce Nakashima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 22% (9) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.8 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-13.3 | 13.7-9 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 7 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 24.5% | 55.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darwin Blanch
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 01/09 | Taylor Fritz US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Bryce Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Timo Legout Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/09 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 14/09 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Jakub Vrba M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/08 | Preston Stearns M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/08 | Jack Anthrop M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/08 | Tyler Bowers M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Rocco Piatti M15 Champaign |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/08 | Alexander Okonkwo M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darwin Blanch vs Bryce Nakashima?
Our model gives 52% to Bryce Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.