Tennis · Challenger Tiburon · 18/09, 19:00
Prediction: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Sebastian Gorzny
Team pages: Jeffrey John Wolf · Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Jeffrey John Wolf
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Jeffrey John Wolf
7-3 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jeffrey John Wolf 1574 · Sebastian Gorzny 1503
| Jeffrey John Wolf | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeffrey John Wolf (rating 1574 vs 1503).
- Sebastian Gorzny dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 46.4% break avg.
- Jeffrey John Wolf is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Sebastian Gorzny makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Jeffrey John Wolf | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.4-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-11 | 14.1-13.9 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jeffrey John Wolf
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Braden Shick Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 14/09 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 13-21 | L |
| 14/08 | James Duckworth ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 12/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 02/08 | Mark Lajal Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/09 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/09 | Daniil Medvedev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 31/08 | Raphael Collignon US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 24/08 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 23/08 | Felix Balshaw ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Marc Polmans ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Axel Nefve M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Borna Gojo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jeffrey John Wolf vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 67% to Jeffrey John Wolf, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.