Tennis · Challenger Rennes · 17/09, 10:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1489 · Yanis Ghazouani Durand 1571
| Francesco Maestrelli | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanis Ghazouani Durand (rating 1489 vs 1571).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 8 aces and 53.1% break avg.
- Yanis Ghazouani Durand is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Yanis Ghazouani Durand makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-12.3 | 12.4-9.6 |
| Aces | 8 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 47.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/09 | Nikola Slavic Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 13/09 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 10/09 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/09 | Gray Voelzke Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Szymon Kielan Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 25/07 | Nicolas Parizzia M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 24/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand?
Our model gives 56% to Francesco Maestrelli, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.