Tennis · M15 Monastir · 16/09, 10:30
Prediction: Lucca Liu vs Mathieu Scaglia
Team pages: Lucca Liu · Mathieu Scaglia
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucca Liu
Mathieu Scaglia
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucca Liu
6-4 (W-L)
Mathieu Scaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucca Liu 1517 · Mathieu Scaglia 1544
| Lucca Liu | Mathieu Scaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Lucca Liu makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Mathieu Scaglia makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Lucca Liu | Mathieu Scaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-8.8 | 12.7-12.3 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 43.4% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucca Liu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Tim Loosen M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/09 | Oscar Brown M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 10/09 | Josh Manuel M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/09 | Mahmoud Chetouane M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-9 | L |
| 29/06 | Goncalo Quintela M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/06 | Andrew Johnson M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Vignesh Gogineni M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Amit Vales M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/05 | Ryan Colby M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Mathieu Scaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Cassis · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Pierre Antoine Tailleu Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Amit Vales Challenger Cassis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/08 | Pierre Delage M15 Cap d'Agde |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 27/08 | Jaume Casas Blasi M15 Cap d'Agde |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Nazim Makhlouf M15 Cap d'Agde |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Pavel Lagutin M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 20/08 | Abdulhamid Mubarak M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/08 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Pablo Perez Navarro M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucca Liu vs Mathieu Scaglia?
Our model gives 53% to Lucca Liu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.