Tennis · Challenger Biella · 17/09, 10:00
Prediction: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Alejandro Moro Canas · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Moro Canas
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Moro Canas
3-7 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Moro Canas 1514 · Pavel Lagutin 1606
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1514 vs 1606).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.9-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.1 | 13.9-8.4 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 67.3% | 66% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 53.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Moro Canas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Geoffrey Blancaneaux Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/09 | Pedro Vives Marcos Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Tiago Cacao Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Remy Bertola US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/09 | Maximilian Marterer Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/09 | Matthieu Roehrich Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/09 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Seville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 08/09 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Moro Canas vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 54% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.