Tennis · WTA Guadalajara · 17/09, 22:00
Prediction: Kayla Day vs Ludmilla Samsonova
Team pages: Kayla Day · Ludmilla Samsonova
Prediction summary
Winner
Kayla Day
Ludmilla Samsonova
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Kayla Day
5-5 (W-L)
Ludmilla Samsonova
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kayla Day 1525 · Ludmilla Samsonova 1530
| Kayla Day | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Kayla Day dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Kayla Day | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.9 | 13.2-11.8 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 5.5 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 72.2% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kayla Day
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Suzan Lamens WTA Barranquilla · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Julieta Pareja US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/08 | Yue Yuan WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/08 | Taylah Preston WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Diane Parry WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/08 | Hanyu Guo WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Ludmilla Samsonova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 09/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Xinyu Wang WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kayla Day vs Ludmilla Samsonova?
Our model gives 61% to Ludmilla Samsonova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.