Tennis · WTA Guadalajara · 18/09, 01:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Ludmilla Samsonova
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Ludmilla Samsonova
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Ludmilla Samsonova
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Ludmilla Samsonova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
0–4
Ludmilla Samsonova
(4 last)
- 04 Oct1-2 16-19L
- 04 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 02 Aug1-2 13-16L
- 06 Jan0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1560 · Ludmilla Samsonova 1534
| Marta Kostyuk | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 0–4 Ludmilla Samsonova (4).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.7 | 13.6-13.2 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.1% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 58.7% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 0 – 4 Ludmilla Samsonova (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 0–4 Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/23 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 04/08/23 WTA Washington | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08/20 WTA Palermo | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 06/01/20 WTA Brisbane | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Ekaterina Alexandrova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Madison Keys WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Kayla Day WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 15/09 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Guadalajara · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 17/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 09/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Ludmilla Samsonova?
Our model gives 64% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.