Tennis · WTA Ljubljana · 15/09, 11:30
Prediction: Martina Colmegna vs Mia Ristic
Team pages: Martina Colmegna · Mia Ristic
Prediction summary
Winner
Martina Colmegna
Mia Ristic
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Martina Colmegna
5-5 (W-L)
Mia Ristic
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Martina Colmegna
0–1
Mia Ristic
(1 last)
- 18 Aug1-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martina Colmegna 1504 · Mia Ristic 1578
| Martina Colmegna | Mia Ristic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mia Ristic (rating 1504 vs 1578).
- Head-to-head: Martina Colmegna 0–1 Mia Ristic (1).
Statistics
| Martina Colmegna | Mia Ristic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-9.5 | 12.1-10.3 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 56.2% | 63.4% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
H2H · Martina Colmegna 0 – 1 Mia Ristic (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Martina Colmegna 0–1 Mia Ristic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/22 ITF W25 Vrnjacka Banja | 1-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martina Colmegna
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Gabriella Price WTA Ljubljana · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W35 Trieste |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W35 Trieste |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/07 | Nuria Brancaccio W75 Cordenons |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Sofia Rocchetti W75 Cordenons |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Barbora Palicova WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/07 | Barbora Palicova WTA Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Jenny Lim W75 The Hague |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Nina Vargova W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Mia Ristic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Lina Gjorcheska WTA Antalya · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Himeno Sakatsume US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Francisca Jorge US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Ayana Akli US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 16/08 | Rositsa Dencheva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Matilde Paoletti W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Lisa Zaar W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08 | Havah Kaur Kaler W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/07 | Laura Samsonova WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martina Colmegna vs Mia Ristic?
Our model gives 71% to Mia Ristic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.