Tennis · WTA Ljubljana · 14/09, 11:30
Prediction: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Team pages: Deborah Chiesa · Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Prediction summary
Winner
Deborah Chiesa
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Deborah Chiesa
4-6 (W-L)
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Deborah Chiesa
2–1
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
(3 last)
- 07 Sept1-2 10-15L
- 25 Jun2-1 16-11W
- 14 Jun2-0 12-2W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deborah Chiesa 1498 · Lucija Ciric Bagaric 1552
| Deborah Chiesa | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucija Ciric Bagaric (rating 1498 vs 1552).
- Lucija Ciric Bagaric is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Deborah Chiesa 2–1 Lucija Ciric Bagaric (3).
- Note: Lucija Ciric Bagaric makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Deborah Chiesa | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.9 | 12.7-10.2 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 48.2% | 62.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Deborah Chiesa 2 – 1 Lucija Ciric Bagaric (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deborah Chiesa 2–1 Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/26 WTA Montreux | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 25/06/26 W35 Tarvisio | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/06/26 WTA Brescia | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deborah Chiesa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric WTA Montreux · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Diana Martynov WTA Montreux · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jana Kovackova W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 12/08 | Anastasia Zolotareva W50 Hamburg |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Eva Bennemann W75 Koksijde |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Andreea Prisacariu WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Yasmine Kabbaj WTA Palermo · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Lola Radivojevic WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Lina Gjorcheska WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Gabriella Price WTA Montreux · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Deborah Chiesa WTA Montreux · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 06/09 | Jule Niemeier WTA Montreux · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Elena Milovanovic W50 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 20/08 | Darya Astakhova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Lea Boskovic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/08 | Antonia Stoyanov W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/08 | Lana Virc W75 Kursumlijska Banja Qual · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/08 | Ksenia Zaytseva W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Bianca E Barbulescu W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deborah Chiesa vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric?
Our model gives 54% to Lucija Ciric Bagaric, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.