Tennis · Challenger Szczecin · 14/09, 10:00
Prediction: Michael Vrbensky vs Kai Wehnelt
Team pages: Michael Vrbensky · Kai Wehnelt
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Vrbensky
Kai Wehnelt
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Vrbensky
3-7 (W-L)
Kai Wehnelt
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Michael Vrbensky
3–1
Kai Wehnelt
(4 last)
- 31 Aug1-2 12-15L
- 07 Jul2-0 12-5W
- 20 Sept2-1 16-14W
- 05 Mar2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Vrbensky 1421 · Kai Wehnelt 1532
| Michael Vrbensky | Kai Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kai Wehnelt (rating 1421 vs 1532).
- Kai Wehnelt dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 42.6% break avg.
- Kai Wehnelt is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Michael Vrbensky 3–1 Kai Wehnelt (4).
- Note: Michael Vrbensky makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Michael Vrbensky | Kai Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.8 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-14.5 | 13.1-11.8 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.6% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
H2H · Michael Vrbensky 3 – 1 Kai Wehnelt (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Michael Vrbensky 3–1 Kai Wehnelt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Challenger Tulln | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 07/07/22 M25 Marburg | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/09/19 M15 Antalya | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 05/03/19 M15 Sharm El Sheikh | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Vrbensky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 20/07 | Patrik Niklas-Salminen Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 28/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/05 | Robin Bertrand Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/04 | Daniel Cukierman Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Kai Wehnelt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Marcel Zielinski Challenger Szczecin · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Mika Brunold Challenger Tulln · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Nick Hardt Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Robert Strombachs Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/08 | Daniel Siniakov Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Nino Ehrenschneider Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Noah Karma Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Louis Wessels M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Vrbensky vs Kai Wehnelt?
Our model gives 64% to Kai Wehnelt, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.