Tennis · Challenger Tiburon · 13/09, 23:30
Prediction: Dan Martin vs Alex Rybakov
Team pages: Dan Martin · Alex Rybakov
Prediction summary
Winner
Dan Martin
Alex Rybakov
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Dan Martin
3-7 (W-L)
Alex Rybakov
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dan Martin 1429 · Alex Rybakov 1493
| Dan Martin | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Rybakov (rating 1429 vs 1493).
- Alex Rybakov is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Dan Martin | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.3 | 11.8-11.4 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 41% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dan Martin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Aidan Kim Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/08 | Nicholas Gore Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/08 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 07/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Zsombor Velcz M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/05 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 14/05 | Kaylan Bigun M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Ryan Haviland M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Alex Rybakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Oliver Bonding Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Charles Broom Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/08 | Oliver Tarvet M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Billy Blaydes M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Matthew Summers M25 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Charlie Robertson M25 Aldershot |
1-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Bruno Kuzuhara M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dan Martin vs Alex Rybakov?
Our model gives 64% to Alex Rybakov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.