Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 18/09, 03:30
Prediction: Tricia Mar vs Lily Fairclough
Team pages: Tricia Mar · Lily Fairclough
Prediction summary
Winner
Tricia Mar
Lily Fairclough
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tricia Mar
2-8 (W-L)
Lily Fairclough
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tricia Mar
0–1
Lily Fairclough
(1 last)
- 10 Sept0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tricia Mar 1436 · Lily Fairclough 1589
| Tricia Mar | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lily Fairclough (rating 1436 vs 1589).
- Lily Fairclough is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Tricia Mar 0–1 Lily Fairclough (1).
- Note: Lily Fairclough makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Tricia Mar | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.7 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-11.8 | 11.9-8.1 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 53.9% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 49.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Tricia Mar 0 – 1 Lily Fairclough (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tricia Mar 0–1 Lily Fairclough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/26 UTR Pro Newport Beach Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tricia Mar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Tiffany Papazian UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/09 | Matilde Magrini UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Tia Messerli UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/09 | Bentley Sparks UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Lily Fairclough UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Kate Fakih UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/09 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/08 | Juny Huh UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Sue Yan Tan UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Kelsey Phillips UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Lily Fairclough
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Martina Puvill UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/09 | Matilde Magrini UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/09 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 10/09 | Tricia Mar UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/09 | Kate Fakih UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 08/09 | Yelyzaveta Chainykova UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/08 | Yilin Yan UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Eva Lopez UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Isabel Cairns UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Emma Tran UTR Pro Brisbane Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tricia Mar vs Lily Fairclough?
Our model gives 83% to Lily Fairclough, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.