Tennis · Challenger Rennes · 15/09, 10:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Nagel
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Arthur Nagel
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Arthur Nagel
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Arthur Nagel
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1454 · Arthur Nagel 1526
| Francesco Maestrelli | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Nagel (rating 1454 vs 1526).
- Francesco Maestrelli dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 56.8% break avg.
- Arthur Nagel is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-13 | 13.1-11 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 56.8% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 7-14 | L |
| 09/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/08 | Toby Samuel US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Arthur Nagel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Maximilian Figl M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/09 | Yassine Dlimi M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Diogo Morais M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Tim Handel M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Daniel Masur M25 Ueberlingen |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/08 | Jannik Maute M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Laurens Harnoth Manrubia M25 Ueberlingen |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Martin Van Der Meerschen M15 Eupen |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Nagel?
Our model gives 57% to Francesco Maestrelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.